Some may have concerns about our getting infected with the virus on our upcoming 4-day trip to San Diego county. The probability of us returning virus free is 99.97848.
Here’s the calculation using statistics from SanDiegoCounty.gov.
Over 226 days (thru 9/27/2020) there have been 1,453 cases of people 80 years old and above getting infected. The rate per 100,00 of these people is 1,212.6. So, if we were in San Diego County the entire 226 days our chances of getting infected would be 1,212.6÷100,000 = 0.012126
But since we will be exposed to San Diego County only 4 days, our chances of getting infected will be 4÷226×0.01216 = .0002152
Therefore, the probability of us returning virus free is 1 – .0002152 = 99.97848.
It’s a risk I know but we will be with a big part of our family for the first time in 2020.
Courage is not the absence of fear. It is the judgement of something else that is more important than fear. The brave may live in fear; but the fearful, the cautious, may not be living at all.
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